There is a fundamental disconnect between the mainstream economists and the reality of the opportunity economy that begins January 1, 2026. The Fed is holding back on rate cuts, going small, when the data says they should cut interest rates more or risk stalling the recovery.
The Fed has been responsible for most of the historic crises with the economy since its inception in 1913. Easy credit and then a restrictive money supply caused the Great Depression and massive deflation. Then, government policy extended the Great Depression by at least 4 years.
Fast forward to the housing crisis created by the Dodd-Frank law passed by Congress and supported by the Fed. Abolishing credit standards for mortgages created a disaster that affected most Americans when it occurred in 2008.
Is there a better way than central planning for the economy?
One way would be to limit the Fed’s mandate to only managing the money supply. The Fed has proven inept at “reading the tea leaves” for the risk of inflation, unemployment, and growth.
You know the game is “rigged” when the Fed does not include energy and food prices in its Consumer Price Index calculation. They did but changed the calculation years ago to be more “relevant”.
The Fed has become the borrower of last resort for the United States Treasury. One arm of the government selling T-bills to an “independent” arm of the government. What could possibly go wrong?
We lived through the Pandemic that clearly was a Chinese lab leak despite the attempt by government officials to sell us it likely came from a meat market.
You be the judge whether this was a “deliberate” leak with plausible deniability.
Six governors thought it was a good idea to force hospitals to discharge elderly patients who had contacted COVID-19 back to their nursing homes where the virus spread like wildfire.
This was an unforced error of the worst kind. In addition, restrictive policies forced 33,000 small businesses in New Jersey to close.
You had to adjust immediately to the rules issued by the government and figure out how to survive. The Pandemic is in the rear-view mirror, but the lessons learned made you stronger and more resilient.
Innovation usually counters change – it was an example of Main Street America at its best.
The recovery has been uneven by state and type of business. Change now is a constant, especially changes in our technology, how we get our information, how customers find you, and how you can reach more potential customers.
AI is going mainstream, although language models have trouble with nuance. They also can trick human beings as the Morgan and Morgan attorney found out after using Chat GPT to write his legal brief. The cases cited were pure fiction.
Not to be outdone, two Federal District judges who should have known better also used AI to write their briefs. Again, the cases cited were pure fiction.
AI is being used for some customer service functions. Also, it is good at parsing large data for trending, patterns, and a predictive capability for potential decisions which make it useful for big business, health care, and manufacturing.
There are more ways than ever to build out your business and make your professional and personal goals a reality.
What is your biggest need in the New Year? What is your one want?
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